Markets

⚠️ US-Iran Ceasefire Sends Markets Soaring, Oil Crashes Below $100

Markets are staging a massive relief rally after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire late yesterday, reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow posted its best day in a year. Oil crashed from $115 to $97—that's an $18 plunge in hours. Clients holding energy stocks need to brace for volatility.

MARKET SNAPSHOT

• US Futures: S&P 500 +0.7%, Dow +327 pts (+0.70%), Nasdaq +0.8%
• Asia Close: Nikkei -0.7%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Shanghai -0.7% (pre-ceasefire jitters)
• Europe Close: FTSE -0.3%, DAX -1.3%, CAC -0.8% (early session weakness)
• 10-Year Treasury: 4.25% (down 10 bps on flight to quality unwind)
• Notable Moves: VIX plunging, WTI Oil $97 (-15%), Gold retreating, Bitcoin surging

TODAY'S CALENDAR

• 8:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims
• 10:00 AM: Wholesale Inventories
• 2:00 PM: Fed's Bowman speaks on financial stability
• After Hours: Constellation Brands (STZ) reports Q4 earnings

TOP 5 HEADLINES

1. Oil Crashes Below $100 as Strait of Hormuz Reopens

WTI crude plummeted from $115 to $97 after the ceasefire deal. Energy stocks are getting hammered in pre-market. Why it matters: The 15% oil crash will feed through to lower inflation prints, giving the Fed more room to cut rates. 📧

2. Dollar Posts Third-Biggest Drop This Year

The Bloomberg Dollar Index wiped out its entire 2026 gain as risk-on sentiment returns. Emerging markets are soaring. Why it matters: A weaker dollar is rocket fuel for international equity allocations.

3. Fed Officials Still See Rate Cut This Year Despite Geopolitical Chaos

Yesterday's Fed minutes showed policymakers remain committed to easing, citing progress on inflation. Why it matters: Lower oil prices just made their job easier—watch for hawkish pivots to turn dovish.

4. Defense Stocks Tumble as War Premium Evaporates

Lockheed, Raytheon, and General Dynamics all down 5%+ in pre-market. That's not a typo. $185 billion in defense market cap vanished overnight. Why it matters: The "war trade" is unwinding violently—rotation back to growth tech accelerating.

5. Emerging Markets Post Biggest Jump Since Liberation Day

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) surging 4.2% pre-market, on track for its best day since last April's historic rally. Why it matters: EM was the biggest casualty of the strong dollar/high oil combo. Both just reversed hard.